Estadio Sol De Mayo · Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Sol de Mayo vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sol de Mayo and 1.00 for Deportivo Rincon, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Sol de Mayo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de Mayo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Rincon away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Sol de Mayo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 0-2 (L)
Deportivo Rincon
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T20:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 2-4 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-01T17:30:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 2-2 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-03-30T19:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-2 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-1 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-18T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-2 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-03-23T19:30:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 1-0 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2018-02-04T20:30:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 2-0 Deportivo Rincon (Copa Argentina)
- 2018-01-28T20:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 1-5 Deportivo Rincon (Copa Argentina)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.