Estadio Sol De Mayo · Analysis updated 07:51 UTC
Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sol de Mayo and 1.40 for Germinal de Rawson, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Germinal de Rawson the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de Mayo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Germinal de Rawson away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Germinal de Rawson to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Sol de Mayo and 1.40 for Germinal de Rawson, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Sol de Mayo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 0-2 (L)
Germinal de Rawson
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.