Estadio Sol De Mayo · Analysis updated 04:34 UTC
Sol de Mayo vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Sol de Mayo and 0.95 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Kimberley Mar del Plata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de Mayo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kimberley Mar del Plata away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kimberley Mar del Plata to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 29% / 33% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Sol de Mayo and 0.95 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 0–116.5%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Sol de Mayo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 0-2 (L)
Kimberley Mar del Plata
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.