Estadio Sol De Mayo · Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
Sol de Mayo vs Santamarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sol de Mayo and 0.69 for Santamarina, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Sol de Mayo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sol de Mayo win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de Mayo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santamarina away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.3%
- 0–015.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.9%
- 2–010.5%
Recent form
Sol de Mayo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 0-2 (L)
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 1-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 3-2 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-03-28T22:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 2-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-2 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-06T14:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 1-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-06-02T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-5 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-04-07T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 2-0 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 0-3 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · Sol de Mayo 1-1 Santamarina (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sol de Mayo win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.