Damson Park · Referee Steven Copeland · Analysis updated 16:59 UTC
Solihull Moors vs Aldershot Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Solihull Moors and 1.83 for Aldershot Town, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Aldershot Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aldershot Town win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Solihull Moors home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aldershot Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aldershot Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 22% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Solihull Moors and 1.83 for Aldershot Town, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–37.7%
Recent form
Solihull Moors
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Halifax Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boreham Wood · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 1-0 (W)
Aldershot Town
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Norwich City U21 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Altrincham · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlisle · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Hornchurch · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aldershot Town win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.