Damson Park · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Solihull Moors vs Boreham Wood Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Solihull Moors and 1.74 for Boreham Wood, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Boreham Wood the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boreham Wood win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Solihull Moors home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boreham Wood to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Solihull Moors and 1.74 for Boreham Wood, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 46.1% vs market 34.1%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.1% | 46.1% | 2.17 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.05 | 45.9% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.7% | 23.0% | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.70 | 53.4% | 53.3% | 1.88 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.1% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.9% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.1% | 76.3% | 1.31 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 53.9% | 1.86 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Solihull Moors
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Halifax Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boreham Wood · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 1-0 (W)
Boreham Wood
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Altrincham · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 0-3 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 4-1 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2025-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 1-2 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2024-03-12T19:45:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 2-0 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2023-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 2-1 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2023-03-18T15:00:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 2-0 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2023-02-14T19:45:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 1-1 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2022-05-15T14:00:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 3-0 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2021-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 3-1 Boreham Wood (National League)
- 2021-02-27T15:00:00.000Z · Solihull Moors 2-2 Boreham Wood (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boreham Wood win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.