Stadion Pokraj Jadra · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Solin vs Trnje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Solin and 1.95 for Trnje, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Trnje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trnje win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Solin home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trnje away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trnje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 22% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Solin and 1.95 for Trnje, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Solin
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Križevci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trnje · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavonija Požega · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zagora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-0 (W)
Trnje
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Bjelovar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Dugo Selo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Jarun | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Trnje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Uljanik | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Slavonija Požega | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Solin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Zagora | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Križevci | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Lucko | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trnje win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.