J.S. Blatter Football Complex Tuanaimato Field 1 · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Solomon Islands vs American Samoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Solomon Islands and 0.92 for American Samoa, a combined total of 5.42. That distribution gives Solomon Islands the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Solomon Islands win
91.4% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Solomon Islands home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
American Samoa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Solomon Islands to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 6% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Solomon Islands and 0.92 for American Samoa, a combined 5.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–07.5%
- 4–17.0%
- 5–06.8%
- 3–06.7%
- 5–16.3%
Recent form
Solomon Islands
- 2026-09-30T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Papua New Guinea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T08:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-03-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bulgaria · 2-10 (L)
American Samoa
- 2026-03-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Guam · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs US Virgin Islands · 2-5 (L)
- 2024-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Samoa · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-11-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonga · 2-6 (L)
- 2023-11-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern Mariana Islands · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pacific Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Caledonia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 |
| 2 | Solomon Islands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 4 | Fiji | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
| 5 | Tuvalu | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Vanuatu | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Samoa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 9 | Cook Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | Tonga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | Northern Mariana Islands | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 3 |
| 12 | American Samoa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -29 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Solomon Islands win, at 91.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.