· Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
Solomon Kings vs Vanuatu United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Solomon Kings and 1.40 for Vanuatu United, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Solomon Kings the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Solomon Kings home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vanuatu United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Solomon Kings to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Solomon Kings and 1.40 for Vanuatu United, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Solomon Kings
- 2026-05-13T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Hekari United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-07T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tahiti United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-17T03:00:00.000Z · A vs South Island United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-14T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu United · 3-2 (W)
Vanuatu United
- 2026-09-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast Mariners · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast Mariners · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Bula · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-13T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Tahiti United · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T01:00:00.000Z · Solomon Kings 2-3 Vanuatu United (OFC Pro League)
- 2026-04-14T07:00:00.000Z · Solomon Kings 3-2 Vanuatu United (OFC Pro League)
- 2026-02-25T04:00:00.000Z · Solomon Kings 0-2 Vanuatu United (OFC Pro League)
OFC Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Hekari United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Vanuatu United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | South Island United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Tahiti United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Solomon Kings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.