· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Solothurn vs Concordia Basel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Solothurn and 1.85 for Concordia Basel, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Solothurn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Solothurn home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concordia Basel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Solothurn
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Münsingen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Courtételle · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia Basel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Delémont · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 2-3 (L)
Concordia Basel
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 0-2 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2026-03-21T15:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 1-1 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2025-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 1-2 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2025-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 0-2 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 2-1 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 3-2 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2023-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 1-3 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2023-05-27T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 2-2 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2022-11-19T15:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 2-1 Concordia Basel (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Schötz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Courtételle | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Concordia Basel | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Muttenz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Solothurn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Grasshopper II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Buochs | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Muri-Gümligen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Thun II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Zug | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.