Solothurn vs Zug Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.06 expected goals for Solothurn and 1.47 for Zug, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Solothurn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Solothurn win

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.06 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Solothurn home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zug away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Solothurn win69%

Draw15%

Zug win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

3–17.6%
2–17.4%
4–15.8%
3–25.6%
2–25.4%

Recent form

Solothurn

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Münsingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Courtételle · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia Basel · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Delémont · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 2-3 (L)

Zug

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Münsingen · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Courtételle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia Basel · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Delémont · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 4-1 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 0-2 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 1-2 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2022-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 1-3 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2021-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 0-1 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2021-06-26T14:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 1-2 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2019-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Solothurn 3-1 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Langenthal	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Schötz	10	6	2	2	13	20
3	Courtételle	10	6	1	3	9	19
4	Concordia Basel	10	5	2	3	7	17
5	Delémont	10	5	2	3	7	17
6	Muttenz	10	5	2	3	4	17
7	Solothurn	10	5	1	4	5	16
8	Grasshopper II	10	5	0	5	-1	15
9	Buochs	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Muri-Gümligen	10	4	1	5	-4	13
11	Thun II	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	FC Wohlen	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Bassecourt	10	3	1	6	-9	10
14	Zug	10	3	1	6	-10	10
15	Black Stars	10	1	6	3	-3	9
16	Münsingen	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Solothurn win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.