Soma Atatürk Stadyumu · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Somaspor vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Somaspor and 1.75 for 68 Aksaray Belediyespor, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives 68 Aksaray Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Somaspor home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
68 Aksaray Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 68 Aksaray Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Somaspor and 1.75 for 68 Aksaray Belediyespor, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Somaspor
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aliağa FAŞ · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Adana Demirspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanya 1221 FK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ankaraspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 1-3 (L)
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aliağa FAŞ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Somaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ankara Demirspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muş Sport Klübü | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Aliağa FAŞ | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Elazığspor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 |
| 4 | Güzide Gebzespor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Çorluspor 1947 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Şanlıurfaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Isparta 32 Spor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Menemen FK | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Erbaaspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Somaspor | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Ankaraspor | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Kastamonuspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | |
| 1 | Sakaryaspor | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Adana 01 FK | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Yeni Orduspor | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Ankara Demirspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | 24 Erzincanspor | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | 1461 Trabzon FK | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 Bingölspor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ankaragücü | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Karacabey Belediyespor | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Fethiyespor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Serik Spor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | İnegölspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Kırklarelispor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Kütahyaspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | İskenderunspor | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.