· Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Somozas vs Portonovo SD Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Somozas and 1.01 for Portonovo SD, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Portonovo SD the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Somozas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portonovo SD to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 34% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Somozas and 1.01 for Portonovo SD, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–013.4%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Somozas
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtiga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruña · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Arteixo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarriana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Antela · 0-1 (L)
Portonovo SD
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Antela | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Estradense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlético Arteixo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Barco | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Alondras | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Silva | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Coruña | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo III | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.