· Analysis updated 09:11 UTC
Sonacos vs HLM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Sonacos and 0.78 for HLM, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives HLM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sonacos home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 26% / 39% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Sonacos and 0.78 for HLM, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 16% and both teams to score at 24%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 0–119.6%
- 1–015.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Sonacos
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ouakam · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs HLM · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Camberene · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Sport · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraaf · 0-0 (D)
HLM
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · Sonacos 0-0 HLM (Ligue 1)
- 2026-02-09T16:30:00.000Z · Sonacos 0-0 HLM (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-23T17:00:00.000Z · Sonacos 0-0 HLM (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-23T16:45:00.000Z · Sonacos 2-0 HLM (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.