Haderslev Football Stadium · Referee A. Uslu · Analysis updated 19:41 UTC
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sonderjyske and 1.92 for AC Horsens, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives AC Horsens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sonderjyske home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AC Horsens away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Horsens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Sonderjyske and 1.92 for AC Horsens, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
Sonderjyske
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyngby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Horsens · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-0 (W)
AC Horsens
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Silkeborg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Næsby · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 25 |
| 3 | Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Odense | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Silkeborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.