Haderslev Football Stadium · Referee M. Tykgaard · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Sonderjyske vs Viborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Sonderjyske and 1.25 for Viborg, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Viborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Viborg win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sonderjyske home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Viborg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–010.2%
Recent form
Sonderjyske
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyngby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Horsens · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-0 (W)
Viborg
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Brabrand · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Silkeborg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyngby · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 0-0 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2026-05-08T17:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 1-0 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 0-2 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2025-11-28T18:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 2-2 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2025-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 0-1 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2025-04-27T12:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 2-2 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2025-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 1-2 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 2-4 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2024-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 2-2 Viborg (Superliga)
- 2024-01-12T11:00:00.000Z · Sonderjyske 1-2 Viborg (Friendlies Clubs)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Brondby | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Odense | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Viborg win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.