Camp El Arco · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Soneja vs RC Catarroja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Soneja and 1.30 for RC Catarroja, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Soneja the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Soneja win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Soneja home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
RC Catarroja away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Soneja to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Soneja and 1.30 for RC Catarroja, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Soneja
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jove Español · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Torrevieja · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Utiel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 0-3 (L)
RC Catarroja
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Crevillente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Soneja · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buñol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Utiel · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Vall de Uxó | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Torrent | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Roda | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Eldense B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Levante II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Saguntino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Crevillente | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Acero | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Ontinyent 1931 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | SC Torrevieja | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Buñol | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Jove Español | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Atzeneta | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Soneja | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Utiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Torrellano | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Soneja win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.