· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Soneja vs Torrent Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Soneja and 1.70 for Torrent, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Torrent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Torrent win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Soneja home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torrent away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torrent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Soneja and 1.70 for Torrent, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Soneja
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jove Español · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Torrevieja · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Utiel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 0-3 (L)
Torrent
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hércules II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buñol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eldense B · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atzeneta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrellano · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Vall de Uxó | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Torrent | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Roda | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Eldense B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Levante II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Saguntino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Crevillente | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Acero | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Ontinyent 1931 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | SC Torrevieja | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Buñol | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Jove Español | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Atzeneta | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Soneja | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Utiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Torrellano | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torrent win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.