Vinh Stadium · Analysis updated 17:41 UTC
Song Lam Nghe An vs Công An Nhân Dân Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Song Lam Nghe An and 1.09 for Công An Nhân Dân, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Song Lam Nghe An the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.1% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Song Lam Nghe An home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Công An Nhân Dân away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Song Lam Nghe An
- 2026-10-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lam Dong · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Ha Noi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pho Hien · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nam Dinh · 0-3 (L)
Công An Nhân Dân
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Thanh Hóa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bình Phước · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T12:15:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 2-4 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 1-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-06-29T11:00:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 0-5 Công An Nhân Dân (Cup)
- 2025-03-01T11:00:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 1-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-01-18T12:15:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 1-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2024-04-04T12:15:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 0-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2024-02-23T11:00:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 0-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2023-05-26T12:15:00.000Z · Song Lam Nghe An 1-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Phu Dong | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ha Noi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Da Nang | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.