Tinsulanonda Stadium · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Songkhla vs Satun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Songkhla and 1.76 for Satun, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Songkhla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Songkhla win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Songkhla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Songkhla and 1.76 for Satun, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 45% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Songkhla
Satun
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muangthong United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Songkhla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-12-28T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Muang Loei United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Chainat | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Muangthong United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Satun | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Kanchanaburi | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Chiangmai United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Police Tero | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Songkhla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Nakhon Pathom | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Phrae United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Mahasarakham United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Songkhla win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.