· Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Sonsbeck vs Büderich Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for Sonsbeck and 1.14 for Büderich, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Sonsbeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sonsbeck win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
2.67 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sonsbeck home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Büderich away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sonsbeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 16% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for Sonsbeck and 1.14 for Büderich, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–07.0%
- 1–16.7%
Recent form
Sonsbeck
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meerbusch · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SSVg Velbert · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SW Essen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scherpenberg · 1-1 (D)
Büderich
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Baumberg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC St. Tönis · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niederrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schonnebeck | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 29 |
| 2 | SSVg Velbert | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Monheim | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | SC St. Tönis | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | Sonsbeck | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | SF Baumberg | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | BW Dingden | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Solingen-Wald | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | KFC Uerdingen 05 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 | Germania Ratingen | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Wuppertaler SV | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| 14 | Scherpenberg | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Büderich | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 7 |
| 16 | SW Essen | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Meerbusch | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Holzheimer SG | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sonsbeck win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.