· Analysis updated 11:02 UTC
Sonsbeck vs Scherpenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sonsbeck and 1.26 for Scherpenberg, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Sonsbeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sonsbeck win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sonsbeck home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scherpenberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sonsbeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Sonsbeck and 1.26 for Scherpenberg, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Sonsbeck
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meerbusch · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SSVg Velbert · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SW Essen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scherpenberg · 1-1 (D)
Scherpenberg
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Ratingen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Solingen-Wald · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · Sonsbeck 1-1 Scherpenberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
- 2024-03-12T18:30:00.000Z · Sonsbeck 1-1 Scherpenberg (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sonsbeck win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.