Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Sorrento vs Cosenza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sorrento and 0.84 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Sorrento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sorrento win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sorrento home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cosenza away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sorrento to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Sorrento and 0.84 for Cosenza, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Sorrento
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Foggia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Picerno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 2-0 (W)
Cosenza
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Foggia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Scafatese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavese · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sorrento win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.