Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Sorrento vs Crotone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sorrento and 0.97 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sorrento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sorrento win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sorrento home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crotone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.9%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
Sorrento
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Foggia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Picerno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 2-0 (W)
Crotone
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SS Monopoli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter U23 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Sorrento 2-2 Crotone (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2025-11-25T17:00:00.000Z · Sorrento 1-3 Crotone (Coppa Italia Serie C)
- 2025-11-15T13:30:00.000Z · Sorrento 1-3 Crotone (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2025-02-01T16:30:00.000Z · Sorrento 2-1 Crotone (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2024-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · Sorrento 2-1 Crotone (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2024-02-03T15:15:00.000Z · Sorrento 1-1 Crotone (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2023-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Sorrento 0-1 Crotone (Serie C - Girone C)
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | AZ Picerno | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Inter U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Savoia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sorrento win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.