Sotra vs Kvik Halden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sotra and 1.45 for Kvik Halden, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Sotra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sotra win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sotra home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sotra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Sotra and 1.45 for Kvik Halden, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Sotra win50%

Draw22%

Kvik Halden win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.2%
2–19.2%
1–26.7%
2–26.7%
1–06.3%

Recent form

Sotra

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Halden · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brattvåg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pors Grenland · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 1-1 (D)

Kvik Halden

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Division - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	jerv	23	16	5	2	26	53
2	Brattvåg	23	15	3	5	21	48
3	Bjarg	23	15	2	6	22	47
4	Mjondalen	23	15	2	6	16	47
5	Sotra	23	13	3	7	25	42
6	Notodden	23	10	5	8	8	35
7	Kvik Halden	23	10	4	9	4	34
8	Træff	23	9	6	8	-7	33
9	Arendal	23	7	6	10	-8	27
10	Pors Grenland	23	7	5	11	-4	26
11	Sandviken	23	7	4	12	-13	25
12	Lysekloster	23	4	6	13	-20	18
13	Eik-Tønsberg	23	3	1	19	-28	10
14	Vidar	23	2	4	17	-42	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sotra win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.