Sotra vs Pors Grenland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sotra and 0.98 for Pors Grenland, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Sotra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sotra win

64.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sotra home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pors Grenland away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sotra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Sotra and 0.98 for Pors Grenland, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sotra win65%

Draw20%

Pors Grenland win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–010.0%
2–19.9%
1–09.2%
1–19.1%
3–07.3%

Recent form

Sotra

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Halden · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brattvåg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pors Grenland · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 1-1 (D)

Pors Grenland

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vidar · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sotra · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lysekloster · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stabaek · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eik-Tønsberg · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Division - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	jerv	24	17	5	2	27	56
2	Brattvåg	25	16	3	6	21	51
3	Bjarg	24	16	2	6	25	50
4	Mjondalen	25	16	2	7	15	50
5	Sotra	25	14	3	8	27	45
6	Notodden	25	10	5	10	4	35
7	Træff	25	9	8	8	-7	35
8	Kvik Halden	25	10	4	11	-1	34
9	Arendal	25	8	7	10	-5	31
10	Pors Grenland	25	8	6	11	-3	30
11	Sandviken	25	7	5	13	-15	26
12	Lysekloster	25	5	7	13	-18	22
13	Eik-Tønsberg	25	4	1	20	-28	13
14	Vidar	25	3	4	18	-42	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sotra win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.