· Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
Sousa vs America-RN Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.37 expected goals for Sousa and 1.17 for America-RN, a combined total of 1.54. That distribution gives America-RN the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
America-RN win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
0.37 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
America-RN away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates America-RN to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 12% / 32% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.37 goals for Sousa and 1.17 for America-RN, a combined 1.54 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 21%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–125.1%
- 0–021.4%
- 0–214.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Sousa
America-RN
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gama · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Trem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trem · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense PI · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is America-RN win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.