Sousense vs Estrela Calheta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sousense and 1.38 for Estrela Calheta, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Sousense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sousense home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela Calheta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sousense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Sousense and 1.38 for Estrela Calheta, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sousense win39%

Draw25%

Estrela Calheta win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
2–18.6%
1–08.6%
1–28.1%
0–18.1%

Recent form

Sousense

2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro Daire · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 2-1 (W)
2017-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleiros · 0-3 (L)

Estrela Calheta

2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ovarense	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Machico	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Camacha	6	4	2	0	6	14
4	Florgrade	6	3	1	2	0	10
5	Castro Daire	6	2	3	1	2	9
6	Sanjoanense	6	2	2	2	0	8
7	União Lamas	6	2	2	2	-2	8
8	Salgueiros	6	1	4	1	-1	7
9	Cinfães	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Beira-Mar	6	0	5	1	-2	5
11	Alpendorada	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Estrela Calheta	6	1	2	3	-5	5
13	Sousense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
14	Guarda	6	0	1	5	-5	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.