· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Sousense vs Florgrade Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sousense and 1.31 for Florgrade, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Florgrade the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sousense home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Florgrade away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Florgrade to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 32% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Sousense and 1.31 for Florgrade, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.5%
Recent form
Sousense
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro Daire · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 2-1 (W)
- 2017-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleiros · 0-3 (L)
Florgrade
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Camacha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanjoanense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Camacha · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.