South Africa U20 vs New Caledonia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for South Africa U20 and 1.50 for New Caledonia U20, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives South Africa U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

South Africa U20 win

84.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

4.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

South Africa U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Africa U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 8% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for South Africa U20 and 1.50 for New Caledonia U20, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 74%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Match result (1X2)

South Africa U20 win85%

Draw8%

New Caledonia U20 win7%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

16%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals90%

Over 3.5 goals81%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

4–16.4%
5–15.7%
3–15.6%
4–24.8%
6–14.3%

Recent form

South Africa U20

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mozambique U20 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia U20 · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Eswatini U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Angola U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lesotho U20 · 3-0 (W)

New Caledonia U20

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

World Cup - U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Argentina U20	7	6	0	1	11	18
2	Morocco U20	7	5	1	1	7	16
3	Colombia U20	7	4	2	1	4	14
4	France U20	7	4	1	2	5	13
5	United States U20	5	3	0	2	11	9
6	Japan U20	4	3	0	1	6	9
7	Mexico U20	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Norway U20	5	2	2	1	1	8
9	Ukraine U20	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Spain U20	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	South Africa U20	4	2	0	2	3	6
12	Korea Republic U20	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Paraguay U20	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Italy U20	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Nigeria U20	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Australia U20	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Egypt U20	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	New Zealand U20	3	1	0	2	-3	3
19	Chile U20	4	1	0	3	-5	3
20	Panama U20	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Brazil U20	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Saudi Arabia U20	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Cuba U20	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	New Caledonia U20	3	0	0	3	-19	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is South Africa U20 win, at 84.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.

A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.