· Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
South Africa U20 vs Zambia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for South Africa U20 and 1.05 for Zambia U20, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives South Africa U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Africa U20 win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Africa U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zambia U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Africa U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for South Africa U20 and 1.05 for Zambia U20, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 71.4% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 26.3% | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.9% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.2% | 46.3% | 2.16 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 53.7% | 53.7% | 1.86 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.05 | 46.1% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.1% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.9% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -1.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
South Africa U20
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mozambique U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Eswatini U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Angola U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lesotho U20 · 3-0 (W)
Zambia U20
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa U20 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botswana U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malawi U20 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · South Africa U20 4-2 Zambia U20 (COSAFA U20 Championship)
- 2025-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · South Africa U20 3-3 Zambia U20 (COSAFA U20 Championship)
- 2025-05-09T18:00:00.000Z · South Africa U20 1-1 Zambia U20 (Africa Cup of Nations U20)
- 2024-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · South Africa U20 2-0 Zambia U20 (COSAFA U20 Championship)
COSAFA U20 Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Namibia U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Mozambique U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Seychelles U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritius U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | South Africa U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Angola U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Eswatini U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Zambia U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Malawi U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Comoros U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 | Botswana U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Africa U20 win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.