Rongomai Park 1 · Analysis updated 08:14 UTC
South Auckland Rangers vs Albany United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for South Auckland Rangers and 1.42 for Albany United, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives South Auckland Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Auckland Rangers win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Auckland Rangers home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Auckland Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for South Auckland Rangers and 1.42 for Albany United, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
South Auckland Rangers
- 2026-07-04T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Fencibles United · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-05-10T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Wanderers · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-04-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Albany United · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-06-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Wanderers · 1-6 (L)
- 2024-05-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Albany United · 4-2 (W)
Albany United
- 2025-04-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs South Auckland Rangers · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs South Auckland Rangers · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-25T02:00:00.000Z · South Auckland Rangers 2-0 Albany United (Chatham Cup)
- 2024-05-11T00:00:00.000Z · South Auckland Rangers 4-2 Albany United (Chatham Cup)
Chatham Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Fencibles United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Auckland City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Miramar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Hibiscus Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Melville United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Cambridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Island Bay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | South Auckland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Takapuna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Petone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Northern AFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Dunedin City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Auckland Rangers win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.