Darcy Street · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
South Hobart vs Riverside Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.45 expected goals for South Hobart and 0.93 for Riverside, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives South Hobart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Hobart win
83.7% probability
Expected goals
3.45 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Hobart home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riverside away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Hobart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.45 goals for South Hobart and 0.93 for Riverside, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–07.4%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
South Hobart
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingborough Lions · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Riverside · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 3-1 (W)
Riverside
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs South East Utd. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Clarence Zebras · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-10T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Launceston United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tasmania NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Hobart win, at 83.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.