Darcy Street · Analysis updated 23:57 UTC
South Hobart vs Wollongong Wolves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for South Hobart and 1.34 for Wollongong Wolves, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Wollongong Wolves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.2% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Hobart home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wollongong Wolves away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wollongong Wolves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for South Hobart and 1.34 for Wollongong Wolves, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
South Hobart
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingborough Lions · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Riverside · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 3-1 (W)
Wollongong Wolves
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs South Hobart · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Manly United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Rockdale City Suns · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Australian Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Bayswater City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 1 | Wollongong Wolves | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 2 | Sutherland Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wests APIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Oakleigh Cannons | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sydney United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Avondale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 3 | South Hobart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Canberra FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Sydney Olympic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.