Daejeon World Cup Stadium · Referee Artis King, Australia · Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
South Korea vs Uzbekistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for South Korea and 0.80 for Uzbekistan, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives South Korea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Korea win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Korea home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uzbekistan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Korea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for South Korea and 0.80 for Uzbekistan, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 56.6% vs market 46.4%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 56.6% | 1.77 | +10.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.4% | 80.7% | 1.24 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 55.1% | 55.1% | 1.81 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.4% | 19.3% | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.9% | 74.4% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 45.7% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
South Korea
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-25T01:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa · 0-1 (L)
Uzbekistan
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Syria · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iran · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugal · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Korea win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.