Lakeside Stadium · Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for South Melbourne and 1.67 for Dandenong Thunder, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives South Melbourne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Melbourne win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Melbourne home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dandenong Thunder away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–15.9%
- 3–25.8%
Recent form
South Melbourne
- 2026-10-23T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:35:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Oakleigh Cannons · 1-2 (L)
Dandenong Thunder
- 2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Albans Saints · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:15:00.000Z · H vs Oakleigh Cannons · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dandenong City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Altona Magic · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-05T05:30:00.000Z · South Melbourne 1-0 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2026-03-21T08:00:00.000Z · South Melbourne 0-3 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2025-06-22T07:00:00.000Z · South Melbourne 0-1 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2025-03-15T09:15:00.000Z · South Melbourne 0-1 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2024-07-07T07:00:00.000Z · South Melbourne 1-0 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2024-04-06T08:30:00.000Z · South Melbourne 2-1 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2023-06-13T06:00:00.000Z · South Melbourne 3-2 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2023-03-11T08:00:00.000Z · South Melbourne 1-0 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2022-07-09T08:45:00.000Z · South Melbourne 2-1 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
- 2022-04-09T09:45:00.000Z · South Melbourne 1-1 Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL)
Victoria NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 9 | St. Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | -42 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Melbourne win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.