Lakeside Stadium · Analysis updated 09:39 UTC
South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for South Melbourne and 1.48 for Heidelberg United, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Heidelberg United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Melbourne home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heidelberg United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heidelberg United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for South Melbourne and 1.48 for Heidelberg United, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
South Melbourne
- 2026-10-23T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:35:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Oakleigh Cannons · 1-2 (L)
Heidelberg United
- 2026-09-06T07:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentleigh Greens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T05:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Hume City · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-12T09:45:00.000Z · A vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 9 | St. Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | -42 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.