Wolf Competitions Stadium · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
South Shields vs Buxton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for South Shields and 1.21 for Buxton, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives South Shields the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Shields home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Buxton away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Shields to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for South Shields and 1.21 for Buxton, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 44.9% vs market 36.5%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 54.3% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.0% | 25.1% | 3.98 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.0% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.0% | 29.9% | 3.34 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.6% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 55.1% | 1.81 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
South Shields
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Macclesfield · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxton · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witton Albion · 7-0 (W)
Buxton
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chorley · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs King's Lynn Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Shields · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.