South Shields vs Chester Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for South Shields and 1.15 for Chester, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives South Shields the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

South Shields home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chester away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

South Shields win39%

Draw27%

Chester win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–011.3%
0–110.2%
0–08.8%
2–18.3%

Recent form

South Shields

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Macclesfield · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxton · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witton Albion · 7-0 (W)

Chester

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spennymoor Town · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-12-20T15:00:00.000Z · South Shields 3-1 Chester (National League - North)
2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · South Shields 4-0 Chester (National League - North)
2025-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · South Shields 2-0 Chester (National League - North)
2024-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · South Shields 0-1 Chester (National League - North)
2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · South Shields 1-0 Chester (National League - North)
2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · South Shields 0-1 Chester (National League - North)

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	8	24
2	Hereford	11	7	2	2	16	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	6	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	5	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	5	3	4	2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	-5	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	5	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	0	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	-1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	5	1	6	-5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	1	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	-1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	4	3	5	-8	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	4	0	8	-6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	3	3	6	-7	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	-10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	-10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	-11	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.