· Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
South Shields vs Sunderland U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for South Shields and 1.68 for Sunderland U21, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives South Shields the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Shields win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
South Shields home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Shields to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for South Shields and 1.68 for Sunderland U21, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
South Shields
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Macclesfield · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxton · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witton Albion · 7-0 (W)
Sunderland U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich City U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Shields win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.