· Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Southall vs Carshalton Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Southall and 1.33 for Carshalton Athletic, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Southall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Southall win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southall home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carshalton Athletic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Southall and 1.33 for Carshalton Athletic, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Southall
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorking Wanderers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Herne Bay · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobham · 2-1 (W)
Carshalton Athletic
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Borough · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ramsgate · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Southall win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.