Southampton vs Blackburn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Southampton and 1.23 for Blackburn, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Southampton win

59.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Southampton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southampton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Southampton and 1.23 for Blackburn, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Southampton win59%

Draw20%

Blackburn win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.9%
2–07.9%
1–07.3%
3–17.0%

Recent form

Southampton

2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)

Blackburn

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	17	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	6	17
6	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	11	16
8	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
9	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	3	3	4	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	5	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Southampton win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.