Southampton vs Burnley Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Southampton and 1.05 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Southampton win

69.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.55 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Southampton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Burnley away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Southampton win70%

Draw17%

Burnley win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.3%
2–08.9%
3–17.9%
3–07.6%
1–17.3%

Recent form

Southampton

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 1-1 (D)

Burnley

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-1 Burnley (FA Cup)
2022-04-21T18:45:00.000Z · Southampton 0-2 Burnley (Premier League)
2021-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 2-2 Burnley (Premier League)
2021-04-04T11:00:00.000Z · Southampton 3-2 Burnley (Premier League)
2020-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-0 Burnley (Premier League)
2020-02-15T12:30:00.000Z · Southampton 1-2 Burnley (Premier League)
2019-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-3 Burnley (Premier League)
2019-02-02T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-1 Burnley (Premier League)
2018-08-12T12:30:00.000Z · Southampton 0-0 Burnley (Premier League)
2018-02-24T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-1 Burnley (Premier League)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
4	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
5	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
6	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
7	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
13	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
16	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
17	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
19	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
20	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Southampton win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.