St. Mary's Stadium · Referee Adam Herczeg, England · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Southampton vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Southampton and 0.88 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Southampton win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southampton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portsmouth away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 52.0% vs market 45.3%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 52.0% | 1.92 | +6.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 41.2% | 42.7% | 2.34 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 57.0% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 23.7% | 4.22 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.0% | 80.9% | 1.24 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.3% | 19.0% | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.7% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 48.0% | 2.08 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Southampton
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 1-1 (D)
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-25T12:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-1 Portsmouth (Championship)
- 2025-09-14T11:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-0 Portsmouth (Championship)
- 2019-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Southampton 4-0 Portsmouth (League Cup)
- 2012-04-07T12:00:00.000Z · Southampton 2-2 Portsmouth (Championship)
- 2011-12-18T13:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-1 Portsmouth (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Southampton win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.