Southampton vs Stoke City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Southampton and 1.18 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Southampton or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Southampton win44%

Draw26%

Stoke City win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Southampton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Southampton and 1.18 for Stoke City, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Southampton or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Southampton

Stoke City

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bolton	1	1	0	0	1	3
2	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	0	1
3	Wolves	1	0	1	0	0	1
4	Birmingham	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Derby	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Middlesbrough	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	West Ham	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Bristol City	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Burnley	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Cardiff	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Charlton	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Norwich	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	QPR	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Sheffield Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Stoke City	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Watford	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	West Brom	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Millwall	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Swansea	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Lincoln	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Southampton	0	0	0	0	0	-4

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.