St. Mary's Stadium · Referee Lewis Smith, England · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Southampton vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Southampton and 1.53 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southampton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swansea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Southampton
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 1-1 (D)
Swansea
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · Southampton 3-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 2-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2025-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · Southampton 0-0 Swansea (Championship)
- 2025-01-12T16:30:00.000Z · Southampton 3-0 Swansea (FA Cup)
- 2024-01-20T12:30:00.000Z · Southampton 3-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2023-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 5-0 Swansea (Championship)
- 2022-01-08T17:30:00.000Z · Southampton 3-2 Swansea (FA Cup)
- 2021-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 3-1 Swansea (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-05-08T18:45:00.000Z · Southampton 1-0 Swansea (Premier League)
- 2017-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-0 Swansea (Premier League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.