St. Mary's Stadium · Referee R. Ricardo · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Southampton vs West Ham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Southampton and 1.68 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southampton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
West Ham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
Southampton
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 1-1 (D)
West Ham
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Southampton 1-4 West Ham (League Cup)
- 2025-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-1 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-1 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2023-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-1 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2022-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Southampton 1-1 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2022-03-02T19:30:00.000Z · Southampton 3-1 West Ham (FA Cup)
- 2021-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 3-2 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2021-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-0 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2021-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-3 West Ham (Premier League)
- 2020-12-29T18:00:00.000Z · Southampton 0-0 West Ham (Premier League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.