Silverlake Stadium · Analysis updated 07:22 UTC
Southampton W vs Sheffield United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Southampton W and 1.02 for Sheffield United W, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Southampton W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Southampton W win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southampton W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Southampton W and 1.02 for Sheffield United W, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Southampton W
Sheffield United W
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Southampton W · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest W | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bristol City W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Southampton W | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Watford W | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Southampton W win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.