Roots Hall · Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Southend vs Barrow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Southend and 1.46 for Barrow, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Southend the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Southend win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southend home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barrow away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southend to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Southend and 1.46 for Barrow, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Southend
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 2-4 (L)
Barrow
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wealdstone · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Scunthorpe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Southend win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.