Roots Hall · Referee George Laflin · Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Southend vs Kidderminster Harriers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Southend and 0.72 for Kidderminster Harriers, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Southend the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Southend win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southend home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kidderminster Harriers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southend to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Southend and 0.72 for Kidderminster Harriers, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 57.3% vs market 46.7%, edge +10.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 57.3% | 1.75 | +10.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.0% | 85.3% | 1.17 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 62.5% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.6% | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 77.3% | 1.29 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.0% | 14.6% | 6.85 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.7% | 37.2% | 2.69 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 42.7% | 2.34 | -10.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Southend
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 2-4 (L)
Kidderminster Harriers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutton Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boreham Wood · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-12-23T15:00:00.000Z · Southend 2-1 Kidderminster Harriers (National League)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Southend 2-1 Kidderminster Harriers (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Southend win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.